Managing the portfolio implications of geopolitics

18 min read
18 min read

In today’s markets, geopolitical and geo-economic events have consequences that extend far beyond the place where they occur – it is a complex world and it has never been more intriguing. Most of today’s super funds have significant overseas investments and even those with a domestic bias may see their returns impacted by events unfolding elsewhere.

Geopolitical risks are poorly understood in financial markets and are often mispriced. The key is to understand the transmission mechanism into the global economy, trade and markets.

Placing such events into context helps price both risk and the timing of taking an investment decision. For active managers, the challenge is to structure the market ‘noise’—the plethora of prices, news and events—into useful data sets and information.

Yet true alpha lies in turning knowledge into insight. This requires, for want of a better word, imagination. For imagination to be effective, we need to understand the context which, combined with deep analysis, enables the construction of investment strategies. But it doesn’t stop there; you then need to trade and risk manage that investment.

There are many crosscurrents facing investors today. The major themes we at CQS are looking at are populism, challenges to the world order, growth and other emerging issues. We seek to identify events and their transmission mechanisms into markets as we construct portfolios. Amongst the major themes presently affecting global markets are China’s Belt & Road Initiative (BRI), the changes in the Gulf region, the moves to restructure the European Union and Eurozone in a post-Brexit era, the course of global economic growth, inflation and interest rates, and unfolding trade tensions, primarily between the US and China.

All these events have brought with them heightened volatility, exacerbated by changes to the market structure, which resulted in the Dow Jones experiencing its biggest fall in six years during February, triggering a sell-off around the world, as well as the volatility experienced over the last few weeks.

These unfolding geopolitical changes are presenting both risks and opportunities to investors. We believe active portfolio managers have a responsibility to closely analyse these risks.

Australia’s built-in advantage

The world is an incredibly competitive place and is getting more so. However, in our view Australia is well positioned to benefit from growing global demand as the world’s population grows from seven billion, forecasted to reach over nine billion by 2050.

The world is an incredibly competitive place and is getting more so. However, Australia is well positioned to benefit from growing global demand.

Geographically, Australia provides a bridge to China and the rest of Asia. In the coming years China is set to become Australia’s most important economic partner. This means Australia is well placed to benefit from continuing growth with the superpower on its doorstep.

Australia also has a built-in advantage provided by its natural resources and its strong agricultural sector. We believe its future edge will also be driven by education and having the right regulatory and structural framework to allow for efficient market functioning.

China to shape the world’s future

In 2018 and beyond, China will remain an engine for global growth. While President Xi Jinping’s plan for ‘Socialism with Chinese Characteristics’ means domestic governance may look less Western, China’s focus on economic reform, environmental improvement and rule of law is also set to create improving conditions for entrepreneurial enterprise, as was set out in the Five Year Plan during 2017’s 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.

China’s BRI is expected to be one of the most significant contributors to global growth in the coming years. One of the largest infrastructure projects in history, it aims to strengthen China’s economic leadership by linking Europe to China through countries across Eurasia and the Indian Ocean.

The BRI is ambitious, taking in 65 countries, which make up 60 per cent of the global population and 30 per cent of global GDP. To put this in perspective, $8 trillion was invested in quantitative easing following the GFC, while BRI is estimated by some to invest $10 trillion into the real economy, albeit over a longer period of time.

The scale and character of Chinese activity is extraordinary and, if successful, China may not just be set to dominate the region but remould the world order. It is China’s strategic intent, clarity of vision and long-term planning and execution that are the keys to its success.

Changes in the GCC region

Turning to the Middle East, the Gulf Cooperation Council, made up of six oil-producing nations including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Yemen, has seen enormous change over the past few decades as these nations seek to diversify their economies away from oil.

Leading the way is Saudi Arabia, which in its Vision 2030 outlined a program to improve economic diversification, wean the Kingdom off oil and grow a vibrant private sector to generate wealth and create employment for its young population. Spearheaded by Mohamed bin Salman, I believe this strategy is potentially a massive game changer and disrupter for the region.

Saudi Arabia’s program of domestic change includes a Public Investment Fund, which is focused on building strategic sectors of the economy, as well as a program to achieve budgetary balance. The key insight for me lies in the oil price. In the short term the oil price could have further upside and stay higher for longer. Structurally, based on our analysis, the oil price should remain in a US$40 to US$60 trading range, although short-term moves above or below this central range are probable. However, the fiscal demands placed on the proposed reforms and the diplomatic tensions within the region as well as regional instability, means the oil price is likely to remain above this range for the short term. Despite the decline in oil’s importance to global GDP, the oil price is an important transmission mechanism to monitor.

The growth of European populism

The Eurozone region continues to face a number of political challenges. Populism is alive and well. It is directly impacting some of Europe’s largest countries – and it is not just about Brexit. In fact, Brexit has become a catalyst for European Union and Eurozone reform.

Populism is alive and well. It is directly impacting some of Europe’s largest countries – and it is not just about Brexit. In fact, Brexit has become a catalyst for European Union and Eurozone reform.

Migration has played a significant role in the European political landscape. The September 2017 elections in Germany created unprecedented difficulties in forming a stable coalition government, which was only sworn in last month. And following the recent elections, Italy is facing another weak coalition with little appetite for structural reform. Should the Northern League be part of a coalition, it would likely place Italy on a collision course with the European Central Bank.

In France, despite Macron’s stunning success in last year’s elections, over 40 per cent of French people voted either Far Right or Far Left, and right-wing parties have also made significant parliamentary gains in the Netherlands and Austria. Macron’s political star is on the rise, however, he faces confrontation with unions over reforms. He has ambition, vision and strategy, and has taken the EU’s leadership role from Merkel. The question is whether Germany will continue to effectively underwrite the EU and Eurozone at a time when centrifugal forces causing stress within EU about economi
cs, national and cultural identity, and the type of EU model—from Federation to an economic community only—are being debated.

As such, we will be keeping a close eye on the growing stresses in the EU and Eurozone, with the potential for more politically-inspired volatility on the horizon.

The US

US monetary policy and investor confidence continue to be important drivers of global financial markets.

With fiscal stimulus from US tax reform and BRI, investors are focused on inflation and the course of interest rates. Wage inflation is key and in the US it has been trending up. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell appears to have a more hawkish agenda and we continue to expect markets to be volatile in the short term as they adjust to a higher rate environment, notwithstanding our constructive view of markets in the medium term.

We believe investor portfolios should seek to mitigate rising rates. At CQS we continue to favour short duration and floating rate assets. Inflation, the course of interest rates and trade wars are the elephant in the room. Developments on these fronts deserve to be monitored closely.

Trade

A potential escalation of trade tariffs between the US and China has rightly concerned markets. President Trump is using aid, sanctions and trade as instruments of foreign policy. Indeed, he is fulfilling electoral promises and there may be political posturing ahead of the US midterm election. Both recent tariff announcements – Section 232 (steel and aluminium of approximately US$3bn, with several exemptions having been granted) and Section 301 (intellectual property) suggest further challenges and tensions are coming.

Section 301 in particular relates to geopolitical and geo-technological rivalry between the US and China. In the case of the latter, there is likely to be a short-term effect both on China’s and the US’s trade, economies and on markets given estimates of US$50-$100bn of traded goods being targeted by tariffs. However, we do not believe the medium-term effect will be enough to knock global GDP growth materially. In our view, China may in the long term be a beneficiary of a trade spat as the US becomes a more self-sufficient economy. In the case of Section 301 there will be greater clarity following the consultation period.

The outlook

Despite the many geopolitical situations currently unfolding worldwide, we remain constructive on global growth. All 45 OECD countries’ economies are expanding, with 33 accelerating. Estimates for global GDP growth in 2018 are 3.4 per cent and for 2019 are 3.3 per cent.

While QT is an effective tightening, the excess reserves in the banking system continue to provide sufficient liquidity to the global economy.

In the short term there are pockets of stress, distress and dislocation. The dispersion in valuations is an opportunity for active managers to generate returns for super fund members. However, as asset managers we need to remain aware of potential potholes and be prepared to be nimble in trading such opportunities. Volatility provides opportunity for active investment managers.

In today’s markets, geopolitical and geo-economic events have consequences that extend far beyond the place where they occur – it is a complex world and it has never been more intriguing. Most of today’s super funds have significant overseas investments and even those with a domestic bias may see their returns impacted by events unfolding elsewhere.

Geopolitical risks are poorly understood in financial markets and are often mispriced. The key is to understand the transmission mechanism into the global economy, trade and markets.

Placing such events into context helps price both risk and the timing of taking an investment decision. For active managers, the challenge is to structure the market ‘noise’—the plethora of prices, news and events—into useful data sets and information.

Yet true alpha lies in turning knowledge into insight. This requires, for want of a better word, imagination. For imagination to be effective, we need to understand the context which, combined with deep analysis, enables the construction of investment strategies. But it doesn’t stop there; you then need to trade and risk manage that investment.

There are many crosscurrents facing investors today. The major themes we at CQS are looking at are populism, challenges to the world order, growth and other emerging issues. We seek to identify events and their transmission mechanisms into markets as we construct portfolios. Amongst the major themes presently affecting global markets are China’s Belt & Road Initiative (BRI), the changes in the Gulf region, the moves to restructure the European Union and Eurozone in a post-Brexit era, the course of global economic growth, inflation and interest rates, and unfolding trade tensions, primarily between the US and China.

All these events have brought with them heightened volatility, exacerbated by changes to the market structure, which resulted in the Dow Jones experiencing its biggest fall in six years during February, triggering a sell-off around the world, as well as the volatility experienced over the last few weeks.

These unfolding geopolitical changes are presenting both risks and opportunities to investors. We believe active portfolio managers have a responsibility to closely analyse these risks.

Australia’s built-in advantage

The world is an incredibly competitive place and is getting more so. However, in our view Australia is well positioned to benefit from growing global demand as the world’s population grows from seven billion, forecasted to reach over nine billion by 2050.

The world is an incredibly competitive place and is getting more so. However, Australia is well positioned to benefit from growing global demand.

Geographically, Australia provides a bridge to China and the rest of Asia. In the coming years China is set to become Australia’s most important economic partner. This means Australia is well placed to benefit from continuing growth with the superpower on its doorstep.

Australia also has a built-in advantage provided by its natural resources and its strong agricultural sector. We believe its future edge will also be driven by education and having the right regulatory and structural framework to allow for efficient market functioning.

China to shape the world’s future

In 2018 and beyond, China will remain an engine for global growth. While President Xi Jinping’s plan for ‘Socialism with Chinese Characteristics’ means domestic governance may look less Western, China’s focus on economic reform, environmental improvement and rule of law is also set to create improving conditions for entrepreneurial enterprise, as was set out in the Five Year Plan during 2017’s 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.

China’s BRI is expected to be one of the most significant contributors to global growth in the coming years. One of the largest infrastructure projects in history, it aims to strengthen China’s economic leadership by linking Europe to China through countries across Eurasia and the Indian Ocean.

The BRI is ambitious, taking in 65 countries, which make up 60 per cent of the global population and 30 per cent of global GDP. To put this in perspective, $8 trillion was invested in quantitative easing following the GFC, while BRI is estimated by some to invest $10 trillion into the real economy, albeit over a longer period of time.

The scale and character of Chinese activity is extraordinary and, if successful, China may not just be set to dominate the region but remould the world order. It is China’s strategic intent, clarity of vision and long-term planning and execution that are the keys to its success.

Changes in the GCC region

Turning to the Middle East, the Gulf Coop
eration Council, made up of six oil-producing nations including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Yemen, has seen enormous change over the past few decades as these nations seek to diversify their economies away from oil.

Leading the way is Saudi Arabia, which in its Vision 2030 outlined a program to improve economic diversification, wean the Kingdom off oil and grow a vibrant private sector to generate wealth and create employment for its young population. Spearheaded by Mohamed bin Salman, I believe this strategy is potentially a massive game changer and disrupter for the region.

Saudi Arabia’s program of domestic change includes a Public Investment Fund, which is focused on building strategic sectors of the economy, as well as a program to achieve budgetary balance. The key insight for me lies in the oil price. In the short term the oil price could have further upside and stay higher for longer. Structurally, based on our analysis, the oil price should remain in a US$40 to US$60 trading range, although short-term moves above or below this central range are probable. However, the fiscal demands placed on the proposed reforms and the diplomatic tensions within the region as well as regional instability, means the oil price is likely to remain above this range for the short term. Despite the decline in oil’s importance to global GDP, the oil price is an important transmission mechanism to monitor.

The growth of European populism

The Eurozone region continues to face a number of political challenges. Populism is alive and well. It is directly impacting some of Europe’s largest countries – and it is not just about Brexit. In fact, Brexit has become a catalyst for European Union and Eurozone reform.

Populism is alive and well. It is directly impacting some of Europe’s largest countries – and it is not just about Brexit. In fact, Brexit has become a catalyst for European Union and Eurozone reform.

Migration has played a significant role in the European political landscape. The September 2017 elections in Germany created unprecedented difficulties in forming a stable coalition government, which was only sworn in last month. And following the recent elections, Italy is facing another weak coalition with little appetite for structural reform. Should the Northern League be part of a coalition, it would likely place Italy on a collision course with the European Central Bank.

In France, despite Macron’s stunning success in last year’s elections, over 40 per cent of French people voted either Far Right or Far Left, and right-wing parties have also made significant parliamentary gains in the Netherlands and Austria. Macron’s political star is on the rise, however, he faces confrontation with unions over reforms. He has ambition, vision and strategy, and has taken the EU’s leadership role from Merkel. The question is whether Germany will continue to effectively underwrite the EU and Eurozone at a time when centrifugal forces causing stress within EU about economics, national and cultural identity, and the type of EU model—from Federation to an economic community only—are being debated.

As such, we will be keeping a close eye on the growing stresses in the EU and Eurozone, with the potential for more politically-inspired volatility on the horizon.

The US

US monetary policy and investor confidence continue to be important drivers of global financial markets.

With fiscal stimulus from US tax reform and BRI, investors are focused on inflation and the course of interest rates. Wage inflation is key and in the US it has been trending up. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell appears to have a more hawkish agenda and we continue to expect markets to be volatile in the short term as they adjust to a higher rate environment, notwithstanding our constructive view of markets in the medium term.

We believe investor portfolios should seek to mitigate rising rates. At CQS we continue to favour short duration and floating rate assets. Inflation, the course of interest rates and trade wars are the elephant in the room. Developments on these fronts deserve to be monitored closely.

Trade

A potential escalation of trade tariffs between the US and China has rightly concerned markets. President Trump is using aid, sanctions and trade as instruments of foreign policy. Indeed, he is fulfilling electoral promises and there may be political posturing ahead of the US midterm election. Both recent tariff announcements – Section 232 (steel and aluminium of approximately US$3bn, with several exemptions having been granted) and Section 301 (intellectual property) suggest further challenges and tensions are coming.

Section 301 in particular relates to geopolitical and geo-technological rivalry between the US and China. In the case of the latter, there is likely to be a short-term effect both on China’s and the US’s trade, economies and on markets given estimates of US$50-$100bn of traded goods being targeted by tariffs. However, we do not believe the medium-term effect will be enough to knock global GDP growth materially. In our view, China may in the long term be a beneficiary of a trade spat as the US becomes a more self-sufficient economy. In the case of Section 301 there will be greater clarity following the consultation period.

The outlook

Despite the many geopolitical situations currently unfolding worldwide, we remain constructive on global growth. All 45 OECD countries’ economies are expanding, with 33 accelerating. Estimates for global GDP growth in 2018 are 3.4 per cent and for 2019 are 3.3 per cent.

While QT is an effective tightening, the excess reserves in the banking system continue to provide sufficient liquidity to the global economy.

In the short term there are pockets of stress, distress and dislocation. The dispersion in valuations is an opportunity for active managers to generate returns for super fund members. However, as asset managers we need to remain aware of potential potholes and be prepared to be nimble in trading such opportunities. Volatility provides opportunity for active investment managers.

Picture of By Sir Michael Hintze

By Sir Michael Hintze

chief executive and senior investment officer

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Derek Thompson

Via live link

Best Selling Author, Podcast Host of 'Plain English'

Sessions

Keynote 8 – Navigating the energy transition: opportunities, investor strategies and policy needs

Few speakers can match Derek Thompson‘s ability to synthesize mega-trends in society, labor, economics, technology, and politics. Put another way: Derek trawls the data sets and does the forecasting and deep reporting necessary to help us better understand how we live, how we vote, how we spend, and how we work.

In his paradigm-shifting #1 New York Times bestseller, Abundance (co-written with Ezra Klein), this award-winning journalist reveals how our policies and culture have pushed us into a world of scarcity (not enough housing, workers, or progress)—and offers a radical new path towards a world where housing is affordable, energy is plentiful, and innovation flourishes across industries.

He shares a compelling vision of a future where we have more than enough for everybody, and a practical, actionable roadmap for how to get there. It starts with taking more risks, building more expansively, and recognizing that we all have the power to create a world of abundance. “Everything’s utopian until it’s reality,” he says.

Carmen Beverley-Smith

Executive Director - Superannuation, Life & Private Health Insurance, APRA

Sessions

Keynote 8 – Navigating the energy transition: opportunities, investor strategies and policy needs

Carmen joined APRA in March 2023 and holds the role of Executive Director, Life and Private Health Insurance and Superannuation.  

She has had an esteemed career in financial services, spanning over 25 years. She has held diverse leadership roles at Westpac and Commonwealth Bank of Australia, including across risk, transformation and change, product and portfolio development, and sales and service. 

Prior to joining APRA, she held the role of General Manager, Risk Transformation Delivery Integration at Westpac. This involved leading the group-wide implementation of a suite of solutions to uplift risk management capability and develop data, analytics and reporting. 

Carmen leads with a values-driven approach and a particular interest in developing and mentoring talent. 

She holds a Bachelor of Commerce and Accounting, is a certified Chartered Accountant and a Graduate of the Australian Institute of Company Directors. 

Amy C. Edmondson

Novartis Professor of Leadership and Management, Harvard Business School

Sessions

Keynote 8 – Navigating the energy transition: opportunities, investor strategies and policy needs

Amy C. Edmondson is the Novartis Professor of Leadership and Management at the Harvard Business School, a chair established to support the study of human interactions that lead to the creation of successful enterprises that contribute to the betterment of society.

Edmondson has been recognized by the biannual Thinkers50 global ranking of management thinkers since 2011, and most recently was ranked #1 in 2021 and 2023; she also received that organization’s Breakthrough Idea Award in 2019, and Talent Award in 2017.  She studies teaming, psychological safety, and organisational learning, and her articles have been published in numerous academic and management outlets, including Administrative Science Quarterly, Academy of Management Journal, Harvard Business Review and California Management Review. Her 2019 book, The Fearless Organization: Creating Psychological Safety in the Workplace for Learning, Innovation and Growth (Wiley), has been translated into 15 languages. Her prior books – Teaming: How organizations learn, innovate and compete in the knowledge economy (Jossey-Bass, 2012), Teaming to Innovate (Jossey-Bass, 2013) and Extreme Teaming (Emerald, 2017) – explore teamwork in dynamic organisational environments. In Building the future: Big teaming for audacious innovation (Berrett-Koehler, 2016), she examines the challenges and opportunities of teaming across industries to build smart cities. 

Edmondson’s latest book, Right Kind of Wrong (Atria), builds on her prior work on psychological safety and teaming to provide a framework for thinking about, discussing, and practicing the science of failing well. First published in the US and the UK in September, 2023, the book is due to be translated into 24 additional languages, and was selected for the Financial Times and Schroders Best Business Book of the Year award.

Before her academic career, she was Director of Research at Pecos River Learning Centers, where she worked on transformational change in large companies. In the early 1980s, she worked as Chief Engineer for architect/inventor Buckminster Fuller, and her book A Fuller Explanation: The Synergetic Geometry of R. Buckminster Fuller (Birkauser Boston, 1987) clarifies Fuller’s mathematical contributions for a non-technical audience. Edmondson received her PhD in organisational behavior, AM in psychology, and AB in engineering and design from Harvard University.

 

Daniel Mulino MP

Assistant Treasurer and Minister for Financial Services

Sessions

Keynote 8 – Navigating the energy transition: opportunities, investor strategies and policy needs

Born in Brindisi, Italy, Daniel was a young child when he moved with his family to Australia. He grew up in Canberra and completed his first degrees – arts and law – at the ANU. He then completed a Master of Economics (University of Sydney) and a PhD in economics from Yale.

He lectured at Monash University, was an economic adviser in the Gillard government and was a Victorian MP from 2014 to 2018. As Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasurer of Victoria, Daniel helped deliver major infrastructure projects and developed innovative financing structures for community projects.

In 2018 he was preselected for the new federal seat of Fraser and became its first MP at the 2019 election, re-elected in 2022 and 2025. From 2022 to 2025, Daniel was chair of the House of Representatives’ Standing Economics Committee in which he chaired inquiries; economic dynamism, competition and business formation and insurers’ responses to 2022 major floods claims.

In 2025, he became the Assistant Treasurer and Minister for Financial Services.

In August 2022, Daniel published ‘Safety Net: The Future of Welfare in Australia’, which aims to explore the ways in which an insurance approach can improve the effectiveness of government service delivery.