Is change in the wind for global markets?

6 min read
6 min read

As we move deeper into the year, we see the potential for a change in the direction of the prevailing wind across global markets and economies. Why? Big US tax cuts, synchronised global growth and strong earnings may face increasingly strong headwinds from US Federal Reserve (the Fed) rate hikes, rising inflation and protectionist threats. For now, the cycle tailwinds are stronger than the headwinds, but we believe this balance could shift as soon as the midway point of the year as the Fed continues to lift rates.

Tailwinds to outpace headwinds … but for how long?

It’s been an eventful start to 2018 for global financial markets. The 5.6 per cent rise for the S&P 500 Index was the biggest January gain since 1997. This was followed by the largest ever one-day spike in the CBOE Volatility Index (the VIX), the first 10 per cent market correction since early 2016, and a subsequent 8 per cent rebound. To top it all off, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose 50 basis points to 2.9 per cent – the highest since the taper tantrum of late 2013. Strong Q4 corporate earnings and a much larger-than-expected Trump fiscal stimulus provided the initial boost, but this was undone when a spike in average hourly earnings, released with the January payrolls data, triggered an inflation scare.

The end result? 2018 looks different from last year along a number of significant fronts:

  • more fiscal stimulus adding to already strong global growth momentum
  • labour market inflation pressures, centring on the US
  • central banks becoming more hawkish, with the US Fed potentially hiking four times this year and the ECB preparing to wind down quantitative easing
  • President Trump turning out less protectionist than feared during his first year in office – although he’s now implementing tariffs
  • more market volatility, implying larger risk premiums across asset classes.

This adds up to a complicated late-cycle backdrop for markets. Our view is that, for now, the cycle tailwinds from synchronised global growth, strong earnings-per-share gains and fiscal easing outweigh the growing headwinds from monetary tightening and inflation pressures.

US Equities: Don’t throw caution to the wind

Our investment measures tell us to be cautious about US equities. Very expensive valuations in the US implies asymmetry in the return outlook, where the potential downside is larger than the upside. Other markets range from slightly cheap (emerging markets) to slightly expensive (Europe and Japan).

We’re scoring the cycle as slightly positive for global equities, but watching closely for any signs of US recession risk. Our base-case analysis is that the most likely timing for the next recession is late 2019/early 2020. This means it’s probably another 12 months or so until recession risk enters the market radar.

Our sentiment process was signalling that equities were overbought in late January. The subsequent market correction and partial recovery have taken most of our signals back to neutral. Overall, we still recommend a neutral allocation to global equities, with a value-driven underweight to the US offset by overweights to emerging markets, Japan and Europe. We’re also neutral on high-yield credit, where expensive valuation is being offset by a moderately positive cycle tailwind from low default rates and strong corporate profits.

Volatility strikes back

One of the main takeaways from the start to the year is that volatility is back. The VIX index of the S&P 500 Index expected volatility averaged just 11.1 in 2017, the lowest year-average on record. The combination of central bank tightening, rising inflation, protectionist pressure and geopolitical risks means that volatility is almost certain to be higher this year – something we have already experienced through the first quarter.

Our preference for the past few years has been to buy the dip, as broadly positive views on the cycle outlook supported equities and credit. For now, the cycle tailwinds are stronger than the headwinds, so we are still looking to add risk into market pullbacks. But we believe the headwinds will increase as the Fed becomes more aggressive, inflation picks up and profit margins come under pressure from rising labour costs. Buying dips will likely become more challenging as we move through the year and markets become more sensitive to recession risks.

Treasuries: Fair value in the US, expensive elsewhere

One of the stories of 2018 has been the lift in government bond yields. As of mid-March, the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen by 50 basis points in 2018, UK gilts are up 30 basis points and German bunds have risen 23 basis points. Only Japanese government bonds (JGBs) have bucked the trend, where the Bank of Japan’s yield curve control policy is keeping the 10-year yield below 10 basis points.

Our fair value estimate for the 10-year US Treasury yield is around 2.8 per cent. This is based on our expected path for the Fed funds rate over the next few years, plus the term premium. Our estimate includes our expectation that there is a good likelihood the US will experience a recession by 2020, which means the Fed will be lowering rates. At 2.9 per cent in mid-March, the US 10-year yield is marginally on the cheap side of fair value. Bunds, gilts and JGBs, however, remain very expensive on our methodology.

Scenarios update and our call for Q2

We recommend watching three potential scenarios for 2018, given the uncertainties around the outlook.

  1. Markets grind higher
    The US Federal Reserve tightens interest rates three or four times by the end of 2018, the yield curve flattens and global equity markets rise, but slowly, in the face of headwinds. There’s a risk of an equity bear market from late in the year, and Europe, Japan and emerging markets outperform a soft S&P 500 in the US.
  2. We see a blow-out rally
    Despite their current lofty heights, markets continue to surge due to a dovish stance from the Fed. Growth also continues and inflation remains in check. In this scenario, the US dollar is weak, emerging markets do well and everyone from journalists to taxi drivers are euphoric.
  3. The Fed blows it
    The potentially negative path is that the Fed misjudges and tightens interest rates too much, crippling an already sluggish US economy. The key concept to watch here is ‘R-star’ – the estimated neutral level of interest rates when a country has full employment. If it turns out that the proper R-star is lower than the rate the Fed moves towards, then it’s quite possible that the US market already peaked in January 2018.

Our advice for investors is to be ‘leaning out’ as the risks increase. They should base their strategies on three building blocks with differing time horizons.

The first building block is to consider the macro-economic cycles that influence asset classes. The second—but least important—is to focus on valuations and the return potential across asset classes. The third is to factor in market sentiment by looking at price momentum versus contrarian indicators that could signal that assets have been overbought or oversold.

Picture of By Andrew Pease

By Andrew Pease

global head of investment strategy

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Derek Thompson

Via live link

Best Selling Author, Podcast Host of 'Plain English'

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Keynote 8 – Navigating the energy transition: opportunities, investor strategies and policy needs

Few speakers can match Derek Thompson‘s ability to synthesize mega-trends in society, labor, economics, technology, and politics. Put another way: Derek trawls the data sets and does the forecasting and deep reporting necessary to help us better understand how we live, how we vote, how we spend, and how we work.

In his paradigm-shifting #1 New York Times bestseller, Abundance (co-written with Ezra Klein), this award-winning journalist reveals how our policies and culture have pushed us into a world of scarcity (not enough housing, workers, or progress)—and offers a radical new path towards a world where housing is affordable, energy is plentiful, and innovation flourishes across industries.

He shares a compelling vision of a future where we have more than enough for everybody, and a practical, actionable roadmap for how to get there. It starts with taking more risks, building more expansively, and recognizing that we all have the power to create a world of abundance. “Everything’s utopian until it’s reality,” he says.

Carmen Beverley-Smith

Executive Director - Superannuation, Life & Private Health Insurance, APRA

Sessions

Keynote 8 – Navigating the energy transition: opportunities, investor strategies and policy needs

Carmen joined APRA in March 2023 and holds the role of Executive Director, Life and Private Health Insurance and Superannuation.  

She has had an esteemed career in financial services, spanning over 25 years. She has held diverse leadership roles at Westpac and Commonwealth Bank of Australia, including across risk, transformation and change, product and portfolio development, and sales and service. 

Prior to joining APRA, she held the role of General Manager, Risk Transformation Delivery Integration at Westpac. This involved leading the group-wide implementation of a suite of solutions to uplift risk management capability and develop data, analytics and reporting. 

Carmen leads with a values-driven approach and a particular interest in developing and mentoring talent. 

She holds a Bachelor of Commerce and Accounting, is a certified Chartered Accountant and a Graduate of the Australian Institute of Company Directors. 

Amy C. Edmondson

Novartis Professor of Leadership and Management, Harvard Business School

Sessions

Keynote 8 – Navigating the energy transition: opportunities, investor strategies and policy needs

Amy C. Edmondson is the Novartis Professor of Leadership and Management at the Harvard Business School, a chair established to support the study of human interactions that lead to the creation of successful enterprises that contribute to the betterment of society.

Edmondson has been recognized by the biannual Thinkers50 global ranking of management thinkers since 2011, and most recently was ranked #1 in 2021 and 2023; she also received that organization’s Breakthrough Idea Award in 2019, and Talent Award in 2017.  She studies teaming, psychological safety, and organisational learning, and her articles have been published in numerous academic and management outlets, including Administrative Science Quarterly, Academy of Management Journal, Harvard Business Review and California Management Review. Her 2019 book, The Fearless Organization: Creating Psychological Safety in the Workplace for Learning, Innovation and Growth (Wiley), has been translated into 15 languages. Her prior books – Teaming: How organizations learn, innovate and compete in the knowledge economy (Jossey-Bass, 2012), Teaming to Innovate (Jossey-Bass, 2013) and Extreme Teaming (Emerald, 2017) – explore teamwork in dynamic organisational environments. In Building the future: Big teaming for audacious innovation (Berrett-Koehler, 2016), she examines the challenges and opportunities of teaming across industries to build smart cities. 

Edmondson’s latest book, Right Kind of Wrong (Atria), builds on her prior work on psychological safety and teaming to provide a framework for thinking about, discussing, and practicing the science of failing well. First published in the US and the UK in September, 2023, the book is due to be translated into 24 additional languages, and was selected for the Financial Times and Schroders Best Business Book of the Year award.

Before her academic career, she was Director of Research at Pecos River Learning Centers, where she worked on transformational change in large companies. In the early 1980s, she worked as Chief Engineer for architect/inventor Buckminster Fuller, and her book A Fuller Explanation: The Synergetic Geometry of R. Buckminster Fuller (Birkauser Boston, 1987) clarifies Fuller’s mathematical contributions for a non-technical audience. Edmondson received her PhD in organisational behavior, AM in psychology, and AB in engineering and design from Harvard University.

 

Daniel Mulino MP

Assistant Treasurer and Minister for Financial Services

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Keynote 8 – Navigating the energy transition: opportunities, investor strategies and policy needs

Born in Brindisi, Italy, Daniel was a young child when he moved with his family to Australia. He grew up in Canberra and completed his first degrees – arts and law – at the ANU. He then completed a Master of Economics (University of Sydney) and a PhD in economics from Yale.

He lectured at Monash University, was an economic adviser in the Gillard government and was a Victorian MP from 2014 to 2018. As Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasurer of Victoria, Daniel helped deliver major infrastructure projects and developed innovative financing structures for community projects.

In 2018 he was preselected for the new federal seat of Fraser and became its first MP at the 2019 election, re-elected in 2022 and 2025. From 2022 to 2025, Daniel was chair of the House of Representatives’ Standing Economics Committee in which he chaired inquiries; economic dynamism, competition and business formation and insurers’ responses to 2022 major floods claims.

In 2025, he became the Assistant Treasurer and Minister for Financial Services.

In August 2022, Daniel published ‘Safety Net: The Future of Welfare in Australia’, which aims to explore the ways in which an insurance approach can improve the effectiveness of government service delivery.